Bracketology: Ole Miss edition

AUSTIN MILLER: What are your overall thoughts on the Ole Miss men’s basketball team this season?

JOE LUNARDI: At the risk of being the most unpopular person in Oxford, I am not overly optimistic. Ultimately, Ole Miss was a losing team (7-9) in a horrible SEC West and has lost its best player in Chris Warren. While there may be a little “addition by subtraction” in being more team-oriented, the gap between the Rebels and the NCAA tournament was far greater than their 20 overall wins would suggest.

AM: How many wins does Ole Miss need to reach the NCAA Tournament?

JL: The non-conference schedule remains pretty dreadful, with only banged up Miami (Fla.) and possible Paradise Jam opponent Marquette figuring to be NCAA teams. So that means the Rebels will need at least double-digit wins in the conference, which hasn’t happened in a decade. There are scalps to be had in the new single division alignment, but it would be out of character for Ole Miss to suddenly begin winning those “up” games in the league.

AM: Why do you think it’s been a decade since Ole Miss reached the tournament?

JL: The main reason is fundamental. Most years Ole Miss doesn’t win enough games, or at least enough of the right games. The secondary reason is more complicated. The Rebels play a non-conference schedule, understandably, that is more suited to the NIT. The problem is that far too often they get what they wish for.

AM: Do you think Ole Miss reaches the NCAA Tournament?

JL: To be a “surprise” team in 2012, the young Ole Miss guards are going to have to be at least league-average. That’s the only way for the Rebels to crack the top half of the SEC and be a realistic NCAA aspirant.